The Risks of Financial Distress: Investigating the Effects of Liquidity, Leverage, and Profitability on the Transportation and Logistics Industry in Indonesia

Risiko Kesulitan Keuangan: Meneliti Dampak Likuiditas, Rasio Utang, dan Profitabilitas terhadap Industri Transportasi dan Logistik di Indonesia

Authors

  • Helmi Muhammad Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1884-8857
  • Indra Kurniawan Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis PGRI Dewantara
  • Kartika Hendra Titisari Universitas Islam Batik
  • Umu Khouroh Universitas Merdeka
  • Ida Nuryana Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis Asia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21070/jbmp.v12i2.2351

Keywords:

Financial Distress, Liquidity, Leverage, Profitability, Transportation, Logistics

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of liquidity and leverage on profitability and the risk of financial distress, specifically evaluating profitability as a mediating variable within Indonesian transportation and logistics (T&L) companies. Using data from 28 T&L companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the research employed pooled panel regression with clustered standard errors, robustness testing, and Sobel mediation tests. The results reveal that while liquidity positively impacts profitability and reduces the risk of financial distress, leverage increases the risk of financial distress without significantly affecting profitability. Furthermore, profitability successfully mediates the relationship between liquidity and financial distress, but fails to mediate the impact of leverage on financial distress. By identifying two distinct pathways for financial risk formation the liquidity-profitability pathway and the leverage-financial distress pathway these findings theoretically clarify how internal financial conditions dictate corporate health. Practically, the study implies that to avoid financial distress, T&L companies must proactively manage their liquidity, enhance asset efficiency, and strictly control their debt structures rather than relying on profitability to offset high leverage.

References

Abdelaziz, H., Rim, B., & Helmi, H. (2022). The Interactional Relationships Between Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk and Bank Profitability in MENA Region. Global Business Review, 23(3), 561–583. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919879304

Abdullah, M., Gulzar, I., Chaudhary, A., Tabash, M. I., Rashid, U., Naaz, I., & Ali, A. (2023). Dynamics of speed of leverage adjustment and financial distress in the Indian steel industry. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 9(4), 100152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2023.100152

Alarussi, A. S., & Alhaderi, S. M. (2018). Factors affecting profitability in Malaysia. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(3), 442–458. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-05-2017-0124

Alarussi, A. S., & Gao, X. (2023). Determinants of profitability in Chinese companies. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(10), 4232–4251. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-04-2021-0539

Alessandria, G., Khan, S. Y., Khederlarian, A., Mix, C., & Ruhl, K. J. (2023). The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022. Journal of International Economics, 146, 103788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103788

Aljanabi, A. R. A., & Ghafour, K. M. (2020). Supply chain management and market responsiveness: A simulation study. Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 36(1), 150–163. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBIM-12-2019-0514

Aljandali, A., & Tatahi, M. (2018). Economic and Financial Modelling with EViews: A Guide for Students and Professionals. Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92985-9

Altman, E. I., & Hotchkiss, E. (2006). Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy: Predict and avoid bankruptcy, analyze and invest in distressed debt (3rd ed). Hoboken, N.J: Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118267806

Amponsah-Kwatiah, K., & Asiamah, M. (2021). Working capital management and profitability of listed manufacturing firms in Ghana. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 70(7), 1751–1771. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPPM-02-2020-0043

Andreou, C. K., Andreou, P. C., & Lambertides, N. (2021). Financial distress risk and stock price crashes. Journal of Corporate Finance, 67, 101870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101870

Bäckstrand, J., & Fredriksson, A. (2022). The role of supplier information availability for construction supply chain performance. Production Planning & Control, 33(9–10), 863–874. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2020.1837933

Barboza, F., & Altman, E. (2024). Predicting financial distress in Latin American companies: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and random forest models. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 72, 102158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102158

Batrancea, L. (2021). The Influence of Liquidity and Solvency on Performance Within the Healthcare Industry: Evidence from Publicly Listed Companies. Mathematics, 9(18), 2231. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182231

Braunsberger, C., & Aschauer, E. (2025). Corporate Failure Prediction: A Literature Review of Altman Z-Score and Machine Learning Models Within a Technology Adoption Framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(8), 465. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080465

Buzgurescu, O. L. P., & Elena, N. (2020). Bankruptcy Risk Prediction in Assuring the Financial Performance of Romanian Industrial Companies. In S. Grima, E. Özen, & H. Boz (Eds.), Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis (pp. 19–28). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920200000104003

Chen, Y.-K., Shen, C.-H., Kao, L., & Yeh, C.-Y. (2018). Bank Liquidity Risk and Performance. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 21(01), 1850007. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219091518500078

Das, N. C., Chowdhury, M. A. F., & Islam, Md. N. (2022). The heterogeneous impact of leverage on firm performance: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 11(2), 235–252. https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJBS-04-2020-0100

EL-Chaarani, H., EL-Abiad, Z., & Jafar, S. H. (2023). The impact of liquidity on the financial performance of banks during the post-Covid-19. In Reference Module in Social Sciences. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44-313776-1.00111-2

Gelashvili, V., Segovia-Vargas, M.-J., & Camacho-Miñano, M.-M. (2022). What factors condition the financial viability of sheltered employment centres? Empirical evidence. Review of Managerial Science, 16(2), 459–482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-021-00450-3

Ghardallou, W. (2023). The heterogeneous effect of leverage on firm performance: A quantile regression analysis. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 16(1), 210–225. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-12-2021-0490

Habib, A., Costa, M. D., Huang, H. J., Bhuiyan, Md. B. U., & Sun, L. (2020). Determinants and consequences of financial distress: Review of the empirical literature. Accounting & Finance, 60(S1), 1023–1075. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12400

Hassan, M., & Giouvris, E. (2020). Financial institutions mergers: A strategy choice of wealth maximisation and economic value. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(4), 495–529. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-06-2019-0113

Isayas, Y. N. (2021). Financial distress and its determinants: Evidence from insurance companies in Ethiopia. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1951110. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1951110

Isayas, Y. N. (2022). Determinants of banks’ profitability: Empirical evidence from banks in Ethiopia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2031433. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2031433

Issa, A., Yousef, H., Bakry, A., Hanaysha, J. R., & Sahyouni, A. (2021). Does the board diversity impact bank performance in the MENA countries? A multilevel study. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 21(5), 865–891. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-06-2020-0222

Jolly Cyril, E., & Singla, H. K. (2020). Comparative analysis of profitability of real estate, industrial construction and infrastructure firms: Evidence from India. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 25(2), 273–291. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-08-2019-0069

Kebede, T. N., Tesfaye, G. D., & Erana, O. T. (2024). Determinants of financial distress: Evidence from insurance companies in Ethiopia. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-024-00369-5

Kuzey, C., Fritz, M. M. C., Uyar, A., & Karaman, A. S. (2022). Board gender diversity, CSR strategy, and eco-friendly initiatives in the transportation and logistics sector. International Journal of Production Economics, 247, 108436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2022.108436

Liang, D., Tsai, C.-F., Lu, H.-Y. (Richard), & Chang, L.-S. (2020). Combining corporate governance indicators with stacking ensembles for financial distress prediction. Journal of Business Research, 120, 137–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.07.052

Lim, H., & Rokhim, R. (2021). Factors affecting profitability of pharmaceutical company: An Indonesian evidence. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(5), 981–995. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2020-0021

Lord, J., Landry, A., Savage, G. T., & Weech-Maldonado, R. (2020). Predicting Nursing Home Financial Distress Using the Altman Z-Score. INQUIRY: The Journal of Health Care Organization, Provision, and Financing, 57, 0046958020934946. https://doi.org/10.1177/0046958020934946

Lucas, L. (2024). Indonesia: GDP from land transport 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2024, from Statista website: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1019359/indonesia-gdp-land-transport/

Maside-Sanfiz, J. M., López-Penabad, M.-C., Iglesias-Casal, A., & Torrelles Manent, J. (2024). Determinants of the profitability of Sheltered Workshops: Efficiency and effects of the COVID-19 crisis. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1), 936. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03435-1

Mohamed, S. S. (2020). Suggested Model for Explaining Financial Distress in Egypt: Toward a Comprehensive Model. In R. Biswas & M. Michaelides (Eds.), Financial Issues in Emerging Economies: Special Issue Including Selected Papers from II International Conference on Economics and Finance, 2019, Bengaluru, India (pp. 99–122). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0196-382120200000036005

Myers, S. C. (1984, July). Capital Structure Puzzle [Working Paper]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1393

Nafisa, A., Muhammad, H., & Sari, N. P. (2022). Corporate bankruptcy: Evidence from the plastics and packaging industry in Indonesia. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 11(6), 165–174. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v11i6.1942

Patrocínio, T., Madaleno, M., & Nogueira, M. C. (2024). Does the Way Variables Are Calculated Change the Conclusions to Be Drawn? A Study Applied to the Ratio ROI (Return on Investment). Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(7), 266. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17070266

Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184–199. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02755985

Plumley, D., Serbera, J.-P., & Wilson, R. (2021). Too big to fail? Accounting for predictions of financial distress in English professional football clubs. Journal of Applied Accounting Research, 22(1), 93–113. https://doi.org/10.1108/jaar-05-2020-0095

Rejimon, A. V., & Usha, M. (2024). Financial distress analysis for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy – a case study of a public sector company in India. Salud, Ciencia y Tecnología - Serie de Conferencias, 3, 904. https://doi.org/10.56294/sctconf2024904

Saidi, S., Mani, V., Mefteh, H., Shahbaz, M., & Akhtar, P. (2020). Dynamic linkages between transport, logistics, foreign direct Investment, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from developing countries. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 141, 277–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.09.020

Salehzadeh, R., Tabaeeian, R. A., & Esteki, F. (2020). Exploring the consequences of judgmental and quantitative forecasting on firms’ competitive performance in supply chains. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 27(5), 1717–1737. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-08-2019-0382

Santoso, S., Nurhidayat, R., Mahmud, G., & Arijuddin, A. M. (2021). Measuring the Total Logistics Costs at the Macro Level: A Study of Indonesia. Logistics, 5(4), 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/logistics5040068

Slater, P. J., Greenfield, A., Godfrey, E., & Policastro, F. (2024). Losing altitude: The impact of new leasing standards on the liquidity, leverage, profitability and valuation of U.S. and European airlines. Journal of Air Transport Management, 117, 102594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102594

Sobel, M. E. (1986). Some New Results on Indirect Effects and Their Standard Errors in Covariance Structure Models. Sociological Methodology, 16, 159–186. https://doi.org/10.2307/270922

Statista. (2023). Growth of global air traffic passenger demand 2024. Retrieved September 9, 2024, from Statista website: https://www.statista.com/statistics/193533/growth-of-global-air-traffic-passenger-demand/

Ugur, M., Solomon, E., & Zeynalov, A. (2022). Leverage, competition and financial distress hazard: Implications for capital structure in the presence of agency costs. Economic Modelling, 108, 105740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105740

Yu, L., Liu, W., Wang, X., Ye, Z., Tan, Q., Qiu, W., … Chen, W. (2022). A review of practical statistical methods used in epidemiological studies to estimate the health effects of multi-pollutant mixture. Environmental Pollution, 306, 119356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119356.

Downloads

Published

2026-09-29

Issue

Section

Articles

Categories